Key Takeaways:
The Center for American Progress projects 70,000 avoidable deaths by 2040 from SNAP work requirement expansions that will cut 2.4 million people per month from food assistance.
The World Food Programme warns that 45 million additional people could fall into acute hunger if the Iran conflict continues through June, adding to the 318 million already food insecure globally.
US farmers face spring planting without adequate fertilizer as 30% of global supply transits the Strait of Hormuz, now at a virtual standstill with Iran charging $2 million per ship.
The Center for American Progress published state-level projections on March 19 estimating that expanded SNAP work requirements under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will result in nearly 70,000 avoidable deaths nationally by 2040. The Congressional Budget Office projects a 2.4 million person reduction in average monthly SNAP participation from the new requirements, which now cover veterans, former foster youth, homeless individuals, parents with children over 14, and adults aged 55 to 64.
States face a separate crisis starting in October when administrative cost-sharing shifts from 50% to 75%, with a new 15% benefit cost-share beginning in fiscal year 2028. States that cannot absorb those costs may leave SNAP entirely. Pennsylvania alone could see 1,300 premature deaths from work requirement expansions, with far greater losses if the state exits the program.
The Global Picture Is Worse
The World Food Programme reported on March 17 that 318 million people are already facing crisis-level hunger worldwide, and 45 million more could join them if the Iran conflict persists through June. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries 30% of global fertilizer supply, is at a virtual standstill. Iran is charging $2 million per ship to pass. Somalia commodity prices have risen 20% or more since the conflict began. Sudan imports 80% of its wheat.
The domestic and global crises are connected by the same supply chain. US farmers entering spring planting cannot source adequate fertilizer, and only 50% are projected to be profitable this season. Tech entrepreneur Balaji Srinivasan's widely viewed analysis, with 3.28 million views, warned that Middle East energy infrastructure disruption means shortages "are almost a certainty" and called for immediate acceleration of energy independence.
Feeding systems are shrinking on every front simultaneously. That is the pattern worth sitting with.
People Also Ask
Q: How many people could lose SNAP benefits under the new work requirements? A: The Congressional Budget Office estimates 2.4 million fewer people will receive SNAP in an average month due to expanded work requirements.
Q: How does the Iran war affect global food prices? A: The Strait of Hormuz carries 30% of global fertilizer supply, and its near-closure is driving up energy, fertilizer, and food prices in import-dependent countries across sub-Saharan Africa and Asia.
Q: Can states opt out of SNAP? A: Starting October 2026, states must cover 75% of SNAP administrative costs and up to 15% of benefits by 2028, and states unable to absorb those costs may withdraw from the program.
Q: How many people worldwide face acute hunger in 2026? A: The World Food Programme reports 318 million people currently face crisis-level hunger, with 45 million more at risk if the Middle East conflict continues.